TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,752 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea22…747abacked Over1c2,500$30 inLost-$3067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under56c208.27$116 inWon+$91.839,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over44c200$88 inLost-$881,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Under56c148$83 inWon+$65.127648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb433…f543backed Over35c138.63$49 inLost-$48.524146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over34c135.89$46 inLost-$46.34,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c135$88 inWon+$46.718,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa14…f533backed Under67c100$67 inWon+$334753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Over33c75.78$25 inLost-$25.018540%34 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost-$3029156.4%164 W · 127 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c58.82$29 inWon+$304,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over37c50$19 inLost-$18.51,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe105…8a2dbacked Over44c49$22 inLost-$21.563961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under65c38.46$25 inWon+$13.4615161.6%93 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63fb…9c89backed Under67c36.13$24 inWon+$11.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Over44c35$15 inLost-$15.43756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae28…5d17backed Under56c34$19 inWon+$14.963860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Under57c30.91$18 inWon+$13.2942744.5%190 W · 237 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Over44c26$11 inLost-$11.443652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e8…441fbacked Over44c23$10 inLost-$10.122157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.