NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9382580d9c1986175cafedae9d80271bd49097f0f55e83a93f975a266a05d206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 2c | 2,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 4c | 341.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 31c | 246.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 228.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Under | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 31c | 192.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Over | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 68c | 146.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Under | 64c | 125.41$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 38c | 122$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Over | 49c | 111.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Under | 62c | 100.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 54c | 100.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…cb31backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under | 68c | 73.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 38c | 60.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 38c | 56.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Under | 55c | 54.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 50c | 54.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 51.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Under | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Over | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 34c | 46.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…0938backed Under | 70c | 44.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…0706backed Under | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…51c9backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb134…b496backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…85b9backed Under | 67c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. TimberwolvesGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.