Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf82498dda86c4063113f62aae4c69e4024d9bdd28726a9ea8ae397e45b767ada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff48…b0ecbacked Yes | 31c | 6,571$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.84 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 69c | 6,253$4,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.48 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 69c | 1,673$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.78 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Yes | 28c | 1,561$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.05 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 72c | 1,128$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.07 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 49c | 813.24$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.04 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 31c | 646.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…df99backed No | 72c | 644.03$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 31c | 478.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 466.11$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 69c | 399.98$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 69c | 359.37$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.41 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Yes | 13c | 338.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 30c | 329.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…b440backed Yes | 32c | 257.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 29c | 250.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac9…7d06backed Yes | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b9…e864backed No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 40c | 174.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…4dc8backed Yes | 32c | 156.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 35c | 147.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 129.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…4cd5backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Yes | 31c | 105.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…09a4backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91c2…8987backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…e694backed No | 72c | 80.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…7838backed No | 72c | 78.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…84d9backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes | 27c | 59.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x786a…a6a4backed Yes | 34c | 49.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 119 | 15.1%18 W · 101 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 35c | 39.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…e210backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…f6d2backed Yes | 34c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked No | 70c | 35.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b3…5e9fbacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 70cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…8f17backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 67c | 29.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +155.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.