NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf87941c0168eb049a515e3f966491646217dd149dfa98b2316a971f7718ec9af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Mavericks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Mavericks | 59c | 1,343$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.56 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Kings | 41c | 1,094$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.19 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 77c | 656.91$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Mavericks | 23c | 652.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 123 | 24.4%30 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Kings | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2407…7dcabacked Kings | 54c | 232.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Mavericks | 47c | 211.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…3199backed Mavericks | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Kings | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Kings | 37c | 99.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 58c | 83.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Mavericks | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Mavericks | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 63c | 42.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ad…37efbacked Mavericks | 36c | 38.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…9283backed Kings | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Mavericks | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Kings won
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.