TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,289
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,289 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under49c10,613$5,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.953,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over51c8,401$4,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,311.436,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c4,650$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over50c3,786$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8931,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Under51c1,490$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.2136351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Under47c1,124$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.7527051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Over53c1,106$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58643453.2%231 W · 203 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Under50c1,058$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.1916641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over50c982$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49152052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Under50c963$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.558951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over52c907.02$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.6523850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under51c883$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.991050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over50c768$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3842,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under49c714$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.142,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Under47c525.5$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.5224045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Under50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15024556.3%138 W · 107 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under49c299.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.492,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over51c249.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4985147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under52c205.66$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6648546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10078652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Over51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0812650%63 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Over48c160$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.816657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c11…02c8backed Under49c136.94$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.844445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6dd…d1a9backed Over52c134$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over39c119.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.788,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61b…1872backed Over48c106.64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.192334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Under48c102.5$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.382440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x130c…782cbacked Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4914420.1%29 W · 115 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5012947.3%61 W · 68 L+12.3wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under53c96.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.231,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x922e…7d04backed Over52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507746.8%36 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5917545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Under40c81.41$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8512737%47 W · 80 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Under50c80.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8122347.1%105 W · 118 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.432,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Under51c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.347948.6%233 W · 246 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92bb…11edbacked Over50c69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over50c68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5608…dc60backed Under50c65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+86.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0854…fb45backed Over50c60.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd18b…876dbacked Under49c57.14$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1411356.6%64 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under48c54.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3788845.7%406 W · 482 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Under49c41.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1416036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa46d…59c4backed Under52c40.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8212149.6%60 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8256454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef2…6e74backed Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203930.8%12 W · 27 L-8.2wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-40.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe105…1efbbacked Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-28.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1288…dbbbbacked Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Under51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2212052.5%63 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x681c…ad15backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c34.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under53c29.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.062,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Over47c29.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8650648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Over52c28.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0510957.8%63 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under50c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5559141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over54c22.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.273,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under61c16.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.412,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.