NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa59da542cdc21e0b13129c01c078ef4bcb8777e18caed22a1a075548e0a857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 53c | 1,940$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.09 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Over | 2c | 678.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 659.17$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 646.06$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.17 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 46c | 317.24$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 57c | 227$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Over | 57c | 74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…1baebacked Under | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Under | 44c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Under | 43c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Under | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Over | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Under | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb02…b642backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 34.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Under | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 57c | 26.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 66c | 22.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Kings won
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.