NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e202b1a5733786938dbd4141e5eaae099cabf507c0967b847c614f0ae2e3fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 3,833$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 3,497$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.65 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 1,937$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 47c | 1,636$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.33 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Under | 48c | 900.26$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.14 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Under | 44c | 441.6$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.3 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 416.66$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 285.15$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.28 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 10c | 264.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139f…2b9bbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 177.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 173.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 153.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 142.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 52c | 127$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…8332backed Over | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 52c | 113$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…c9bfbacked Over | 54c | 112.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 109.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 55c | 86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Over | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 65.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Under | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 51c | 57.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Over | 55c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Under | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 51c | 44.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Under | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Under | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a9…728ebacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Under | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Under | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Under | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Under | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Under | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Over | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…45d2backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 46c | 24.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…c5cdbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 51c | 23.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 66c | 22.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-2.5)Kings won
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Kings won
- Mavericks vs. KingsMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Kings won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.