Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8bb88af3e06b00d2b8167e390ece5abdc3f980118ff53af220384e558915da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 73c | 4,780$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 4,107$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.02 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 1,170$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.08 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 77c | 650$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 30c | 460.7$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 70c | 347.7$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.31 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 23c | 260.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 223.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Over | 27c | 177$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…0c15backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 12c | 98.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 69c | 83.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 82.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…ea8dbacked Over | 30c | 61.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 28c | 56.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Under | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Under | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Under | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.