Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2a8331969f02290a4db9dc6440b34369627a3572d3672dc2a517fb00d36e14d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Under | 39c | 2,067$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.67 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 2,057$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.97 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,908$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.06 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 1,670$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.11 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.76 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Over | 61c | 1,381$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3060…c709backed Over | 75c | 1,328$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 25c | 1,100$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 40c | 1,082$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…f5f4backed Over | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 25c | 821.17$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.88 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 51c | 742.87$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.01 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 53c | 657.38$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 72c | 638.89$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 450.23$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.79 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Over | 75c | 370.63$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 13c | 367.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.91 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…b8ffbacked Over | 56c | 355.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 75c | 265.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 70c | 199.59$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Under | 42c | 189.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 67c | 148.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 72c | 139.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Over | 21c | 138.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 70c | 131.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 26c | 123$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 68c | 107.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 26c | 104.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Over | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 76c | 91.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Under | 25c | 91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 71c | 84.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Under | 26c | 69.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 73c | 68.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 25c | 64.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 22c | 62.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…0c15backed Under | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 47c | 58.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 54c | 53.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 51c | 48.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 74c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 65c | 32.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 73c | 30.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed Over | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…8f5ebacked Over | 76c | 22.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Over | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed Over | 76c | 20.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7eb…a668backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Over | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Over | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.