Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf902213c4c3983cb292534ac52d35c7c19c747f31cbdfc1c1a03d0703c0bad53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 41c | 378.27$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 52c | 290.54$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.77 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 62c | 222.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 335 | 41.8%140 W · 195 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 163.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -11.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 25c | 155.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 470 | 23.4%110 W · 360 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed Yes | 47c | 121.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 64c | 118.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 642 | 39.1%251 W · 391 L | +48.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 63c | 113.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 91.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 90.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 393 | 30.3%119 W · 274 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…e28ebacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 56c | 77.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 70c | 60.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 72c | 56.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 126 | 58.7%74 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 39.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…30f2backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 78c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 151 | 75.5%114 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…9894backed Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +511.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…e21ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 19.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.