TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DRXof DRX, Nongshim Red Force
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$416,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$517,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,230 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 280 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1461…30a1backed DRX43c41,287$17,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,563.7720438.2%78 W · 126 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked Nongshim Red Force57c40,000$22,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,80012161.2%74 W · 47 L+10.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Nongshim Red Force47c22,895$10,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,745.8225751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Nongshim Red Force60c12,677$7,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,563.823447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DRX38c8,559$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,308.281,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe04f…f11fbacked Nongshim Red Force43c8,240$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,551.94742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed DRX80c8,220$6,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64942840.2%172 W · 256 L-32.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb726…0664backed Nongshim Red Force62c8,086$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001540%6 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8adb…50bcbacked Nongshim Red Force1c7,332$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.21612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked DRX48c7,004$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,636.491,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed DRX71c6,725$4,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.8567276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Nongshim Red Force60c6,641$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Nongshim Red Force39c6,582$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.731,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Nongshim Red Force35c6,571$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.3113355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed DRX63c6,408$4,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.0314757.1%84 W · 63 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc736…7255backed DRX54c6,354$3,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.994953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DRX52c6,090$3,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,951.812,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0e…fdfebacked Nongshim Red Force58c6,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.961735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Nongshim Red Force18c5,516$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.871,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed DRX54c5,241$2,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.1525269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed DRX61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95014637.7%55 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed DRX40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00013344.4%59 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed DRX41c4,868$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.5918945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7efa…fa43backed DRX67c4,108$2,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.082470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Nongshim Red Force3c3,775$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.165833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed Nongshim Red Force23c3,500$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.994843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked DRX55c3,307$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.3853640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Nongshim Red Force45c3,251$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.2131644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafda…0fccbacked DRX77c3,199$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.3816654.8%91 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e47…50edbacked Nongshim Red Force60c3,142$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.451442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8804…a3a7backed DRX43c3,103$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,768.515450%77 W · 77 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d73…044bbacked DRX41c3,000$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.7312646.8%59 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed DRX54c2,780$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.5785652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nongshim Red Force34c2,728$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.11,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed Nongshim Red Force28c2,663$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.6928350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DRX61c2,534$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.041,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed DRX54c2,513$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.6252650.8%267 W · 259 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed DRX41c2,482$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.723439.7%93 W · 141 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Nongshim Red Force71c2,314$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.8570162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Nongshim Red Force38c2,314$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.871,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0588…8f18backed Nongshim Red Force8c2,170$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3225038%95 W · 155 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb404…f61bbacked DRX68c2,068$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.233844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Nongshim Red Force37c2,000$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.8814041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked DRX70c1,869$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.442,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Nongshim Red Force58c1,792$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.383775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204e…55eabacked Nongshim Red Force59c1,792$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.996956.5%39 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55ce…8acbbacked Nongshim Red Force36c1,590$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.353056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked DRX45c1,510$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.362,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Nongshim Red Force51c1,506$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76717933%59 W · 120 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042b…bbf1backed Nongshim Red Force59c1,457$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9112055%66 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe06c…62aebacked DRX58c1,345$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.886560%39 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed DRX40c1,300$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.991,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked DRX58c1,226$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.6822250.5%112 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec02…3dd1backed DRX72c1,218$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34414049.3%69 W · 71 L-22.3wins-0.16per pick65cpaid-29%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3008…50d9backed DRX42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.481258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x38da…01ecbacked DRX54c1,165$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.353345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Nongshim Red Force60c1,164$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70043539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed DRX45c1,122$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.661,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed DRX72c1,113$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.293863.2%24 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nongshim Red Force45c1,100$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0002…103ebacked DRX63c1,090$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.169743.3%42 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Nongshim Red Force38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40051852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd7c…454fbacked Nongshim Red Force60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005440.7%22 W · 32 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed DRX30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70019839.9%79 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe977…c4d7backed Nongshim Red Force1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed DRX41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59075738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Nongshim Red Force3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed DRX38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62011060%66 W · 44 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Nongshim Red Force1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Nongshim Red Force58c999.99$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58048448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed DRX41c992.65$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.9839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Nongshim Red Force59c958.99$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.811,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed DRX47c888.61$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.3221857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Nongshim Red Force4c849.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.241,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked DRX40c819.25$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.5596057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed DRX43c808$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.5676953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nongshim Red Force59c800$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4693,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed DRX41c779.47$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.21,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Nongshim Red Force60c754.1$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.4657947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked DRX51c724.99$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.4834742.1%146 W · 201 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc872…0cc9backed DRX42c700$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.645648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1976…e363backed DRX67c679.92$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.715240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed DRX71c673.41$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.131,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed DRX51c667$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.4350643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Nongshim Red Force59c647.45$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38232345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed DRX61c599.99$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.9942148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked DRX77c519.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4811253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked DRX38c518.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.697061.4%43 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb398…3a9fbacked DRX70c512.67$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked Nongshim Red Force60c502.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30076047%357 W · 403 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked DRX38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed DRX40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30030050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd38…50c3backed Nongshim Red Force60c499.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003132.3%10 W · 21 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked DRX51c498$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.1345344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Nongshim Red Force41c491.3$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.481,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed DRX41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.839861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Nongshim Red Force61c434.43$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26511037.3%41 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed DRX56c422.04$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.715846.8%74 W · 84 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed DRX40c417.5$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.51,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b9…df0cbacked DRX72c417.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.34366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.