TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DRXof DRX, Nongshim Red Force
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$599,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$786,813

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $599,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked DRX38c134,615$50,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,654.8855955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Nongshim Red Force62c100,000$62,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,132.0664455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe1…4d7fbacked Nongshim Red Force62c50,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,999.9812161.2%74 W · 47 L+10.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Nongshim Red Force55c36,788$20,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,120.2920438.2%78 W · 126 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Nongshim Red Force49c18,431$9,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,062.9723447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed DRX38c11,130$4,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,900.9681443.5%354 W · 460 L+30.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x569f…5561backed Nongshim Red Force0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205223.1%12 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked DRX61c10,543$6,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,143.61,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed DRX38c10,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,2001,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed DRX52c9,925$5,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.5748157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Nongshim Red Force2c9,663$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.443775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked DRX64c8,177$5,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,970.992,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DRX52c6,924$3,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,315.231,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed DRX61c6,320$3,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.5513355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc736…7255backed Nongshim Red Force62c6,000$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7204953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed DRX69c5,544$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.2731644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed Nongshim Red Force1c5,268$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705873.6%21 W · 566 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+176.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked DRX56c5,000$2,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.31,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed Nongshim Red Force65c4,556$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.356735.8%24 W · 43 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked DRX51c4,147$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.771,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed DRX39c4,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,44082452.7%434 W · 390 L+41.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c0e…fdfebacked Nongshim Red Force60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x042b…bbf1backed Nongshim Red Force35c3,300$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.9912055%66 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed DRX39c3,115$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.151,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb404…f61bbacked Nongshim Red Force45c3,065$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.13844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed DRX50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50042940.1%172 W · 257 L-32.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DRX37c2,822$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.111,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed Nongshim Red Force1c2,800$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a0…d7a5backed Nongshim Red Force1c2,250$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.839252.2%48 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Nongshim Red Force33c2,155$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72043539.5%172 W · 263 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed Nongshim Red Force63c2,100$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32225269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed DRX67c2,088$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68014637.7%55 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Nongshim Red Force23c2,041$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.2110631.1%33 W · 73 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed DRX58c2,000$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.8721857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x63a1…0b0cbacked DRX51c1,971$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.381258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed DRX39c1,945$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.2843148%207 W · 224 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Nongshim Red Force62c1,935$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed Nongshim Red Force34c1,648$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.349741.2%40 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Nongshim Red Force62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00059658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Nongshim Red Force1c1,538$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2319122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked Nongshim Red Force1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56347.1%45 W · 589 L-1.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked DRX38c1,472$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.4124529.8%73 W · 172 L-0.9wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed DRX36c1,462$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.641,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked DRX78c1,389$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.454955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked DRX63c1,337$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.953640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3008…50d9backed DRX39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.051258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Nongshim Red Force62c1,204$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.4870462.1%437 W · 267 L-38.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4989…8ff0backed Nongshim Red Force65c1,151$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.0112356.9%70 W · 53 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed Nongshim Red Force4c1,107$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7928350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Nongshim Red Force2c1,060$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.251,5203.3%50 W · 1,470 L-54.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf09c…8535backed Nongshim Red Force2c1,039$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.324946.9%23 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Nongshim Red Force29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30051852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed DRX39c1,026$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.641,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cba…c616backed Nongshim Red Force13c1,012$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.24843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc872…0cc9backed Nongshim Red Force2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.275648.2%27 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed DRX72c1,000$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.991,18751.9%616 W · 571 L-15.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd2…8414backed DRX38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e50…1efebacked Nongshim Red Force62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick64cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed DRX39c999.9$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.1310937.6%41 W · 68 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6818…8f14backed DRX40c956.5$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.94551.1%23 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Nongshim Red Force21c899.98$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.991,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nongshim Red Force49c826.59$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.032,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed DRX38c800$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49622654.4%123 W · 103 L+20.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nongshim Red Force63c799.99$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.62,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Nongshim Red Force63c792.95$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.0426645.9%122 W · 144 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed DRX37c790.72$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.621,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked DRX41c732.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.1911750.4%59 W · 58 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed DRX37c700$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44130050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5db5…5df8backed Nongshim Red Force64c673.86$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.151947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked DRX38c671.11$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.0925639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…c4b2backed Nongshim Red Force62c652.56$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.5926861.6%165 W · 103 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed DRX39c600$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3661,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38da…01ecbacked DRX80c585.11$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.023345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e47…50edbacked Nongshim Red Force50c529.99$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2651442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed DRX39c514.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.271249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Nongshim Red Force61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Nongshim Red Force61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30575738.6%292 W · 465 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d75…cf0bbacked Nongshim Red Force2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101766.3%11 W · 165 L-0.5wins0.00per pick7cpaid-46.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed DRX41c485.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.2326453.8%142 W · 122 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…1a19backed Nongshim Red Force19c480.74$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0138534.8%134 W · 251 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb24f…c638backed Nongshim Red Force63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020051.5%103 W · 97 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Nongshim Red Force63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017544%77 W · 98 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Nongshim Red Force63c476.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30096057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b67…642dbacked Nongshim Red Force11c431.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.72524%6 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-43.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Nongshim Red Force37c423.9$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.521,13130.1%340 W · 791 L-26.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…4e97backed DRX51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1967562.7%47 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed Nongshim Red Force63c398.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25024939%97 W · 152 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd38…50c3backed Nongshim Red Force62c387.1$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403132.3%10 W · 21 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7623…8390backed Nongshim Red Force62c373.87$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.83762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb475…2ed2backed Nongshim Red Force21c364.28$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.53528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7c…bfd7backed DRX38c354.39$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.724146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80d…0ac1backed DRX39c350$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.550547.7%241 W · 264 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7efa…fa43backed Nongshim Red Force29c343.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Nongshim Red Force62c337.53$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2736560.3%220 W · 145 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nongshim Red Force49c335.39$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.211,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Nongshim Red Force57c328.25$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18748852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdfe2…5f33backed Nongshim Red Force63c324.63$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.522369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+50.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x968f…2a1fbacked Nongshim Red Force62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022646.5%105 W · 121 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7301…6b21backed Nongshim Red Force62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Nongshim Red Force62c320.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.