CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb2775d3506feb0f89b92c8e5d1b41df63b30f46681dfce6c418cfe680b9ea14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Aurora Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,946 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 9,537$6,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,294.17 | 361 | 52.6%190 W · 171 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 6,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 5,974$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,973.49 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora Gaming | 45c | 2,808$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.14 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…c666backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 2,208$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.34 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde7…f0a1backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 2,037$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 1,825$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.75 | 330 | 43.3%143 W · 187 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 1,604$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 1,197$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.74 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Aurora Gaming | 32c | 1,153$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.09 | 366 | 45.4%166 W · 200 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 1,029$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.41 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 777$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.05 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5664backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 599.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…cff9backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 364 | 50.3%183 W · 181 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora Gaming | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 425.03$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.44 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…b78cbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 424.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 362.57$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.67 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 320.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 309.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.69 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…3b75backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 183 | 42.1%77 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 288.1$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 276.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 220.74$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 269 | 52.8%142 W · 127 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…9e22backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 220.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4554…9694backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 196.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 191.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.18 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…4fa4backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 176.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Aurora Gaming | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 365 | 55.9%204 W · 161 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 105.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 617 | 54.8%338 W · 279 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b8…8812backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 101.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…e4c1backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…67b3backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 248 | 42.7%106 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora Gaming | 66c | 85.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 80.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 550 | 43.1%237 W · 313 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…f922backed Aurora Gaming | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 64.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…49e7backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 53.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5978…aec4backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 229 | 38%87 W · 142 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe303…401abacked Aurora Gaming | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 45.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 45.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 44.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 40.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 207 | 44.4%92 W · 115 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…cecfbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Aurora Gaming | 59c | 37.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…ef2bbacked Natus Vincere | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978f…e14dbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…60a7backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bf…dc9ebacked Aurora Gaming | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 28.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 26.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Aurora Gaming | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…94a0backed Aurora Gaming | 68c | 19.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed Aurora Gaming | 64c | 16.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group ANatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.