CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb3e6228692a55b9659a192c777000f4805e4f4345b222ddee46c860e69b78c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, B8
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 6,550$4,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.75 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed B8 | 31c | 5,612$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762.33 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 5,066$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.9 | 224 | 68.8%154 W · 70 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa0…253cbacked B8 | 42c | 4,820$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.26 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed B8 | 29c | 3,623$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.79 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…91b0backed B8 | 44c | 2,213$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 1,770$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.6 | 225 | 54.2%122 W · 103 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed B8 | 40c | 1,644$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.64 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed B8 | 24c | 1,427$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.36 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 1,170$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.2 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…f197backed B8 | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 917.99$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.12 | 608 | 48%292 W · 316 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…6116backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 883.97$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.91 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 691.53$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.53 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed B8 | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 152 | 51.3%78 W · 74 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked B8 | 42c | 597.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.33 | 355 | 50.1%178 W · 177 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 576.92$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.52 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed B8 | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 789 | 39.5%312 W · 477 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 521.08$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.87 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 459.12$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…9277backed B8 | 52c | 453.3$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…0267backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 450$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed B8 | 27c | 356.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked B8 | 25c | 349$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked B8 | 28c | 322$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 1,619 | 45.5%737 W · 882 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…cd4abacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked B8 | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…cfedbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 281.25$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 267.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed B8 | 15c | 232.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 1,283 | 22%282 W · 1,001 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9a…73fabacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 196.61$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 393 | 53.2%209 W · 184 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…54bdbacked B8 | 31c | 192.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 253 | 50.2%127 W · 126 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 222 | 54.5%121 W · 101 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed B8 | 39c | 108.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb292…5c5ebacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 100.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…c791backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…0354backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…bf49backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…aacabacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 250 | 70.8%177 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 93.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,263 | 46.9%592 W · 671 L | +18.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6e…a2d8backed B8 | 18c | 90.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…2da5backed B8 | 29c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…e109backed B8 | 32c | 80.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…9272backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f3…e5d3backed B8 | 41c | 75.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…880fbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…4893backed B8 | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…ce31backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…d96dbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…79e4backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 65.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…08ebbacked B8 | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…262abacked B8 | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9abdbacked B8 | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…2db4backed B8 | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…f4f1backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 49.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed B8 | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…851cbacked B8 | 27c | 48.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7e7cbacked B8 | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 42.9%90 W · 120 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked B8 | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…2af9backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 41.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked B8 | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 38.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf016…fe4ebacked B8 | 32c | 35.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…9f6fbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 35.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…cac0backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…6eebbacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…778fbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 32.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…c116backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd2…7a82backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 284 | 43.7%124 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3)Natus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.