World Politics · resolved market
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbda5ef76fac8f2daa92edb8ddec2f8b9646c8ccaa344e359f99d73f908d4d53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x543e…8884backed No | 13c | 8,220$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 42c | 6,450$2,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,721.57 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 5c | 1,774$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 71c | 1,545$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 11c | 1,250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff8…973dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,192$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…a504backed No | 15c | 999.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…8269backed Yes | 33c | 971.03$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed No | 9c | 736.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…805ebacked No | 10c | 667.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Yes | 42c | 617.08$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.54 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 474.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 345.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 318.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 49c | 317.15$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…f2b4backed Yes | 33c | 303.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 8c | 291$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 8c | 285$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 255$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 10c | 232.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 33c | 203.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 173.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad7…a31fbacked No | 7c | 160.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 148.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 78c | 144.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…b0f3backed Yes | 36c | 120.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 54c | 104.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 22c | 88.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b3…eddcbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 78c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?this page
- Will Cho Gil-hyeong win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Do Jong-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Noh Yeong-min win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?No won
- Will Song Ki-sub win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.