Dota2 · resolved market
Vici Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc1f096152d03a8c3f864392496b9928627d8aa01e6ab9bcd12cc7c93825249c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 33c | 1,378$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.03 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,332$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.61 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 58c | 905.66$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.05 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 61c | 563.06$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed No | 19c | 467.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.24 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 27c | 392.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 49c | 350$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 334$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 52c | 297.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…85e3backed No | 55c | 293.29$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.31 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Yes | 58c | 276.19$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Yes | 78c | 272.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 52c | 260.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 46c | 233.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 34c | 149.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 27c | 140.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 108.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 54c | 104.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…07e8backed Yes | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Yes | 77c | 55.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 39c | 47.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Yes | 45c | 44.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 61c | 42.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…d2d8backed Yes | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 49c | 38.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked No | 40c | 31.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 43c | 26.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed Yes | 76c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 72c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vici Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- REKONIX to win 2-0?No won
- REKONIX vs Vici Gaming: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.