Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb56327b056536f0824730236533b3e40497f130c8075f3af8a7e5d987ba332
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 589.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 505.69$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 76c | 496.19$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 474.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 332.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 297.9$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed Yes | 6c | 288.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 21c | 243.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 24c | 207.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 194.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 25c | 183.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 27c | 182.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 172.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 15c | 169.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 20c | 167.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 45c | 166.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 161.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 26c | 161.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 42c | 148.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 127.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 26c | 123.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 109.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 107.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 94.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 88.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 87.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 20c | 85.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 32c | 82.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 16c | 77.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 76.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 38c | 68.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 50c | 58.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 45c | 57.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 27c | 54.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 45c | 53.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 34c | 52.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 20c | 50.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 48.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 24c | 45.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…ab06backed No | 80c | 43.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 41c | 40.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 74c | 40.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 29.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 75c | 29.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 24.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 79c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 22.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…aa8ebacked Yes | 52c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.