Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc98ce98b9894453c4e90f27a84f829cd544c51929f449d708177aa3566aca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 0c | 21,122$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 71c | 3,955$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.88 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 1,580$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.47 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 44c | 1,580$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.57 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,408$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.27 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,322$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.52 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 6c | 1,178$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.5 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…3cfcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,033$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.91 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 57c | 780.39$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.68 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 26c | 778.49$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.41 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 20c | 765.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked No | 73c | 654.43$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.22 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 21c | 650.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.56 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 641.17$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 9c | 625.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.02 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 623.26$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 20c | 597.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.36 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 519.48$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 501.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed No | 80c | 501.05$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 455$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 22c | 440.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.11 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 4c | 425.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 392$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 375$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 13c | 350$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 306.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 305.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…f540backed Yes | 8c | 286.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +229.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 44c | 283.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 278.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 275$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 38c | 262.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 260.51$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 249.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 245.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.11 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 16c | 243.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.28 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed Yes | 16c | 236.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.88 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 228.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 8c | 178.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 176$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.92 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 174$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 39c | 171.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 52c | 162.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 67c | 150.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 63c | 135.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 21c | 134.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 133.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 60c | 132.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 129.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 23c | 127.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 41c | 127.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 24c | 127.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 126.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 11c | 124.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 22c | 122.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 11c | 119.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 115.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Yes | 14c | 110.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 109.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 107.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…a6ccbacked No | 19c | 103.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 26c | 98.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…c1e6backed Yes | 20c | 98.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 72c | 93.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…8454backed Yes | 56c | 88.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…13b3backed Yes | 15c | 81.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.35per pick | 29cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 78.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 77.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes | 77c | 75.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 74.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 72.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 21c | 70.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 59c | 67.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 64.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1deb…5fe1backed Yes | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…45e5backed Yes | 17c | 62.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 24c | 61.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 60.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 58.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed No | 72c | 57.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 41c | 57.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 55.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 62c | 55.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 67c | 52.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 79c | 51.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.