Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x187ac6b3fea339983bc0c42a3c258272a566f4f2287f71bc684513c0e8f9f6c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed Yes | 0c | 3,229$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 17c | 2,041$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.03 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 40c | 1,005$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.26 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 59c | 883.38$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.27 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 733.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 16c | 695.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 3c | 668.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 534.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 47c | 531.76$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 41c | 525.97$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 63c | 467.28$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 437.76$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 51c | 427.15$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.31 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 418.56$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 44c | 400.74$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.13 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 54c | 336.22$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.09 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 275$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 52c | 257.05$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 56c | 244$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 51c | 227.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 46c | 219.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…e0e7backed Yes | 51c | 213.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 32c | 212.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 42c | 205.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…be79backed No | 49c | 203.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 48c | 199.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 191.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 190.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2b9abacked No | 42c | 189.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 185$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 179.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 46c | 178.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…f925backed No | 48c | 171.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 61c | 168.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 66c | 166.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 149.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 13c | 147.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 140.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…2ef8backed Yes | 24c | 138$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 57c | 137.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 67c | 136.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 136.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 128.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 121.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 117.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…8a27backed Yes | 53c | 114.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 43c | 114.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 110.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 49c | 106.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 54c | 102.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 55c | 97.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 87.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 87.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 57c | 86.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 85.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 44c | 84.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…0b3bbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 52c | 79.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 47c | 78.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 39c | 75.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7d…8454backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 71.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…393ebacked Yes | 44c | 67.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 45c | 66.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked No | 76c | 65.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 38c | 65.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 29c | 64.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 62.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…66dbbacked No | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 46c | 58.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 55.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 31c | 53.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 51c | 52.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 31c | 52.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 61c | 52.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982d…d208backed Yes | 59c | 51.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…aab6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 45c | 49.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48c…da03backed Yes | 63c | 47.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…7ac4backed Yes | 61c | 47.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 59c | 45.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 44c | 44.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…08e2backed Yes | 61c | 40.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.