Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90c271b964cdb3fe71fce2681cf7db2dcbe7290f49b042598ca1239f79dd18e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,098$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 999.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 734.38$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 42c | 706.09$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.24 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 696.5$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 663.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 16c | 525.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 523.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 506.33$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 59c | 429.21$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.59 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 30c | 401.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 6c | 385.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 23c | 322.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 21c | 315.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 33c | 276.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 54c | 257.23$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 254.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 41c | 248.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 234.21$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 26c | 215.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 214$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 213.71$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 209.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 60c | 201.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 196.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 58c | 191.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 48c | 180$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 19c | 175.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 37c | 170.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 38c | 160.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 25c | 150.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 36c | 147.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 142.02$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 30c | 137.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 134$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 124.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 115.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 113$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 104.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 102.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 31c | 99.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 97.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 29c | 85.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 54c | 83.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 83.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 29c | 79.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 64c | 77.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 77.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…e683backed Yes | 41c | 71.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…a908backed No | 34c | 68.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 67.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 63.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 62.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 36c | 62.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 53c | 61.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 59.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 60c | 58.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 54.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 32c | 53.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 60c | 52.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 27c | 47.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 45.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 67c | 44.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 34c | 43.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 41c | 41.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 41.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059f…d749backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 60c | 33.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…9321backed No | 52c | 32.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8ba1backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 40c | 30.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 74c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.