MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce04b8a2f85d811ce30a51d9d75e69a86fd5c3b72cc02385a8e686076055cfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 37c | 5,968$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 37c | 3,600$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.28 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 63c | 2,582$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 63c | 2,449$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.08 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 64c | 2,363$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.77 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 18c | 1,431$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,253$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 63c | 1,253$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.44 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 30c | 1,041$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.31 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 891.95$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 36c | 811.51$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.71 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 64c | 686.86$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.31 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 21c | 484.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 388.84$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 345.73$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 217.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 19c | 190$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 71c | 137.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Under | 78c | 92.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 35c | 62.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadcc…9cddbacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 30c | 42.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…2e5bbacked Under | 65c | 38.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…a411backed Over | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.