MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75a21410275164964848daacd793e0fd0d23bf495bb4ea45f7abe91fe1e12185

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Washington Nationalsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
Resolved: May 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,125
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,125 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Washington Nationals	64c	11,809$7,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,308.86	241	46.1%111 W · 130 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets	36c	4,939$1,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,777.93	1,586	48.5%770 W · 816 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals	68c	3,285$2,235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,049.78	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets	37c	3,000$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets	30c	2,802$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$831.33	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66d…6daabacked Washington Nationals	67c	1,938$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$637.76	211	47.9%101 W · 110 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals	74c	1,216$899 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.28	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals	65c	1,153$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.11	2,093	51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L	+44.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets	35c	1,061$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.76	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets	37c	973.37$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.15	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Mets	36c	972$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.92	1,538	48.6%747 W · 791 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked New York Mets	37c	710.17$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.76	215	50.2%108 W · 107 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets	39c	663.73$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.85	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets	34c	448.61$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.19	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets	38c	440$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.2	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals	62c	417$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.69	4,087	57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L	+66.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets	36c	398.15$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.91	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed New York Mets	55c	361.82$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed New York Mets	38c	346.08$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.51	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals	69c	342.57$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.32	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals	61c	315.2$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.93	1,845	50.7%936 W · 909 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Washington Nationals	54c	314.81$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.81	267	47.9%128 W · 139 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed New York Mets	39c	268$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.52	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed New York Mets	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals	65c	247.46$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.17	1,083	56.3%610 W · 473 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed Washington Nationals	41c	239.15$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.1	164	56.7%93 W · 71 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdae6…7d39backed New York Mets	35c	231.83$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.14	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked New York Mets	53c	223.99$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.72	532	61.8%329 W · 203 L	+20.6wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe80f…b81bbacked Washington Nationals	70c	200.89$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.27	74	60.8%45 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x651c…1084backed New York Mets	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets	33c	188.46$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.08	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets	38c	176.5$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.07	2,329	49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L	+41.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…a1d3backed New York Mets	64c	157.81$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed New York Mets	30c	153.09$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.75	946	48.9%463 W · 483 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc5…d49fbacked Washington Nationals	64c	131.39$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.5	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets	36c	124$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets	35c	121.09$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.38	1,947	53.1%1,033 W · 914 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals	61c	111.79$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.6	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked New York Mets	29c	103$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.87	1,119	45.5%509 W · 610 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed New York Mets	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed New York Mets	38c	99.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	496	49.8%247 W · 249 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Washington Nationals	47c	96.93$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.37	339	34.5%117 W · 222 L	-9.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebd…a7e8backed New York Mets	32c	81.05$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed New York Mets	30c	80.58$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	1,269	51.1%648 W · 621 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Washington Nationals	66c	69$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.46	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked New York Mets	47c	64.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-4.7wins	-0.25per pick	56cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets	38c	59.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.79	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked New York Mets	29c	55.83$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	310	46.5%144 W · 166 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals	62c	55$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.9	468	54.5%255 W · 213 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals	62c	55$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.9	721	54.2%391 W · 330 L	+20.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+144.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed New York Mets	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf5…af68backed New York Mets	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed New York Mets	37c	49.34$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets	44c	48.02$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.06	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f43…d8a0backed Washington Nationals	59c	46.88$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.15	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.23per pick	57cpaid	+28.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb89a…033bbacked Washington Nationals	38c	46$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.52	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d91…6816backed New York Mets	33c	43.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals	61c	36.08$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.07	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Washington Nationals	70c	32.53$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.76	881	53.7%473 W · 408 L	+40.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc70…c386backed Washington Nationals	62c	32.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Washington Nationals	60c	32$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.8	141	58.9%83 W · 58 L	+8.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Washington Nationals	40c	31.8$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.08	999	24.6%246 W · 753 L	-70.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4662…1d65backed Washington Nationals	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-9.0wins	-0.19per pick	55cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Washington Nationals	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	263	51.3%135 W · 128 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Washington Nationals	68c	29.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.28	486	51%248 W · 238 L	-18.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed New York Mets	57c	26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	228	48.2%110 W · 118 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals	61c	25.64$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Washington Nationals	64c	24.07$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.67	541	52.1%282 W · 259 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8bd…dd85backed Washington Nationals	62c	17.1$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.5	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Washington Nationals	78c	15.5$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.41	294	46.6%137 W · 157 L	-9.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 3.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event