MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x035b061a832bfb7679b7945094cd936d4f2233162d153b8a15ad7e241f3181dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 46c | 9,500$4,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,360.71 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +16.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 3,745$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.2 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 2,726$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 2,623$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 34c | 2,235$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.34 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 36c | 2,180$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 66c | 1,560$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.96 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 66c | 1,480$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 1,407$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.83 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 54c | 1,149$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.54 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 1,060$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.21 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 1,051$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 34c | 1,018$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.9 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 65c | 806.63$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 33c | 578.29$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.46 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 28c | 500.07$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Over | 47c | 500.02$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 52c | 444.23$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Over | 55c | 433.72$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 61c | 429.83$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.93 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Under | 58c | 426.22$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.24 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…03b0backed Over | 50c | 365.84$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 34c | 365.58$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.28 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 359.68$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 34c | 347.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.54 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 42c | 275.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.66 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 47c | 243.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.94 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5928backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 203.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 282 | 58.5%165 W · 117 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Under | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 27c | 173.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…844fbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 54c | 169$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 64c | 155.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 66c | 150.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 54c | 146.15$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 39c | 135.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 44c | 134.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 34c | 129.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 112.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 46c | 105.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Under | 73c | 98.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…393dbacked Under | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 45c | 95.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed Under | 51c | 76.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Over | 22c | 67.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 59.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 54c | 59.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 58c | 57.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…a411backed Under | 44c | 56.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…d8a0backed Under | 58c | 50.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc58f…130dbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 48.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 54c | 38.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Under | 41c | 36.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Over | 60c | 31.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…c415backed Under | 69c | 28.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 57c | 28.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…1f2dbacked Under | 60c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 53c | 21.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 53c | 19.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.