TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under52c12,134$6,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,826.3455253.1%293 W · 259 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Over45c11,038$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00012640.5%51 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Under57c9,255$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00524146.1%111 W · 130 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over46c8,929$4,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,103.064,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Under54c8,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,679.9811952.9%63 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74a…f1bfbacked Over48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8802240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c5,971$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.751,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over45c3,290$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.265,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Over48c2,884$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.328360.2%50 W · 33 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd60…396cbacked Over46c2,786$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.4219546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under55c2,723$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.1273748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Under59c2,520$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.578353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.981,07848.1%518 W · 560 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over44c2,275$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.5411,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over44c2,251$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007843.6%34 W · 44 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under53c2,223$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.8154152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over44c2,093$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.972,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over42c1,879$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.478,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over40c1,850$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.628,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under56c1,820$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.891,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over28c1,795$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.522,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under53c1,784$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.281,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under50c1,555$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.51,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under55c1,400$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62695950.1%480 W · 479 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over47c1,391$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.0419248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over34c1,387$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.859,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under54c1,304$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.081,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over47c1,265$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.799924.6%246 W · 753 L-70.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55287453%463 W · 411 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50049358.8%290 W · 203 L+30.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over51c1,022$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.2268652.9%363 W · 323 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed Under49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over47c980$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.61,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over37c800.05$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.673,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36885952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over51c790.4$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40022753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over48c739.61$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.132,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under72c666.65$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.668943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under53c653.89$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.3351555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over32c611$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.498,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over46c585.75$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.822,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over28c540.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2410,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under53c520.51$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.6445246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under55c515$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7584949.1%417 W · 432 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under54c514.22$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.016,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23061652.8%325 W · 291 L+31.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8cc…015bbacked Under49c454.6$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.846453.1%34 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed Over32c422.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Under50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20021057.6%121 W · 89 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18038453.6%206 W · 178 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Under53c320.98$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8618551.4%95 W · 90 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Over8c302.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2117252.9%91 W · 81 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14159150.3%297 W · 294 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under57c280.7$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.779943.2%345 W · 454 L-2.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed Under56c277.82$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.363458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over24c245.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6063943.3%277 W · 362 L+1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010055%55 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over46c212$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.524,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8628258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under53c186.77$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7827146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Under56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5737256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under50c168.46$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4644348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58f…130dbacked Over45c166.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509147.3%43 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under53c131.4$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7637747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under74c129.05$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8912,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1a…283ebacked Under62c126.6$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.61866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b4b…94d4backed Under56c124.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5525155.4%139 W · 112 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over46c122.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.451,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under53c105.3$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4911551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over43c100.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.041,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over44c96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2423248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over46c94.91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.013,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3452449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef6…9b93backed Under53c89.74$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.186741.8%28 W · 39 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6df…2d71backed Under56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.882,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc057…804abacked Under72c69.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.123756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x332d…7b0ebacked Over43c68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8499…950dbacked Over45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010446.2%48 W · 56 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under53c65.23$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6629450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over46c64.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5625249.6%125 W · 127 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Over51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3062554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x600b…14b1backed Under53c56.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.442445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Over36c50.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.485949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c0…5dd2backed Over51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.518458.2%107 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over48c48.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.352,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Under49c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9142550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f7…f399backed Under61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.983762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under75c40.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.891,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.499947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Over47c36.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.322849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c3…677cbacked Over50c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb518…3403backed Under71c34.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.813351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe793…c170backed Under65c33.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eda…fb8ebacked Over45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Over50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1534843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f4…c415backed Under66c29.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.191090%9 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick61cpaid+57.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59d7…f69dbacked Under53c28.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.529346.2%43 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over47c26.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.367653.1%359 W · 317 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.