MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a066e188da246eb494fc8a86ddb17f178a833b6b4f6ab56b523a353abd90b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 41c | 1,769$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.28 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 1,366$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.97 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 1,322$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.03 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 1,277$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.4 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 44c | 1,201$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673 | 5,235 | 56.8%2,972 W · 2,263 L | +130.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 1,090$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.73 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 1,014$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.5 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 930.13$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.22 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 51c | 584.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 32c | 495.84$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.17 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 75c | 480$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2,314 | 52.5%1,216 W · 1,098 L | +26.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 476.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.25 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 50c | 423.14$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…64a6backed Over | 62c | 413.6$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 60c | 393.68$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 5c | 356.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c2…1e3abacked Over | 73c | 339.73$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 56c | 239.71$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 50c | 222.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 800 | 55.8%446 W · 354 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Under | 72c | 206.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 34c | 185$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 1,003 | 24.7%248 W · 755 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Under | 76c | 149.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 34c | 147.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 50c | 145.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 123.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 24c | 118.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 43c | 117.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 24c | 91.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 76c | 77.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Over | 69c | 71.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 49c | 70.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 68.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 17c | 67.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 65.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…a411backed Under | 43c | 58.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 61c | 49.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 75c | 46.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…804abacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 56c | 42.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…d8a0backed Under | 56c | 40.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe793…c170backed Over | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Under | 44c | 29.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 52c | 27.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebd…a7e8backed Over | 64c | 26.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 61c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 60c | 21.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Over | 58c | 18.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 78c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1,734 | 50.4%874 W · 860 L | +57.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 75c | 14.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.