MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5761922d0f326eba80773ad4a204e2fc2f53db1d5a503bb8e7853dfa9cebc039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Washington Nationals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 15c | 1,213$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 26c | 1,144$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 67c | 1,136$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.9 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 550.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 68c | 511$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Washington Nationals | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 70c | 408.9$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 68c | 312.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 66c | 247.37$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets | 67c | 233$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 137.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 111.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed New York Mets | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed New York Mets | 67c | 57.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed New York Mets | 66c | 40.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebd…a7e8backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 35.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Washington Nationals | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…c415backed New York Mets | 69c | 28.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed New York Mets | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…15c0backed New York Mets | 68c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.