Lol · resolved market
First Blood in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcebee98f7647323eae2815be5bbe71336f7f58f1732d9607031bf6889eb5449
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karmine Corpof T1, Karmine Corp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Karmine Corp | 41c | 271.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.77 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…eca3backed T1 | 59c | 196.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 126 | 38.9%49 W · 77 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed T1 | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 627 | 39.9%250 W · 377 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Karmine Corp | 41c | 164.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7743…1baebacked T1 | 59c | 157.79$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +12.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…dc39backed Karmine Corp | 48c | 149.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed T1 | 53c | 78.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed T1 | 58c | 74.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Karmine Corp | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Karmine Corp | 46c | 47.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…1e7ebacked T1 | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15fc…fec7backed Karmine Corp | 47c | 32.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Karmine Corp | 46c | 31.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked T1 | 60c | 27.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…22d9backed T1 | 53c | 24.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 345 | 68.7%237 W · 108 L | +24.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa484…524cbacked T1 | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- First Blood in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Karmine Corp won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)Karmine Corp won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsKarmine Corp won
- LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 WinnerKarmine Corp won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.