NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd2162b928ddb0643177104d87dc106c35f3fc9f39149d83426a30aa06e9e0e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers | 65c | 1,458$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.55 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nuggets | 28c | 979.45$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.77 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets | 31c | 508.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Nuggets | 27c | 408.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.01 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5616backed Nuggets | 60c | 148.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.95 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Trail Blazers | 60c | 107.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Trail Blazers | 35c | 83.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Trail Blazers | 69c | 58.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Trail Blazers | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…f6a5backed Nuggets | 70c | 45.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Trail Blazers | 62c | 32.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…73debacked Nuggets | 56c | 31.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 137 | 44.5%61 W · 76 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…e980backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 30.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Nuggets | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…818dbacked Nuggets | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Nuggets | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…2f27backed Nuggets | 69c | 24.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Trail Blazers | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Trail Blazers | 73c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543d…b27abacked Nuggets | 71c | 14.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.