NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856dc19cde45ba2298fc731f2b37deca238af74c71c56ca6a8b906e1243dfb8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Nuggets, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 43c | 1,202$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.83 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 1,173$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.37 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Nuggets | 42c | 1,088$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.87 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Nuggets | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Trail Blazers | 74c | 738.04$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 30c | 478.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 447.06$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.77 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…f0c4backed Nuggets | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Trail Blazers | 75c | 379.75$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 318.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.77 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Nuggets | 34c | 299.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Nuggets | 39c | 273.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nuggets | 9c | 270.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Trail Blazers | 65c | 269.37$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Trail Blazers | 66c | 268.94$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Nuggets | 43c | 250.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Nuggets | 39c | 228.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Nuggets | 43c | 218.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Nuggets | 39c | 197.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 145.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Trail Blazers | 58c | 136.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Trail Blazers | 60c | 112.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Nuggets | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Nuggets | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers | 63c | 90.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Trail Blazers | 60c | 70.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Nuggets | 22c | 69.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Nuggets | 45c | 64.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Trail Blazers | 64c | 63.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Nuggets | 40c | 56.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Nuggets | 35c | 51.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Nuggets | 45c | 51.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Nuggets | 43c | 47.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 202 | 40.1%81 W · 121 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Nuggets | 40c | 43.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets | 39c | 43.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Nuggets | 42c | 42.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…fb5fbacked Nuggets | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ec…49abbacked Nuggets | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…ce6abacked Nuggets | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Nuggets | 42c | 38.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nuggets | 37c | 38.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Nuggets | 44c | 36.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Nuggets | 46c | 36.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Nuggets | 37c | 35.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Nuggets | 36c | 35.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Nuggets | 46c | 30.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Nuggets | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Nuggets | 36c | 29.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Nuggets | 36c | 29.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Nuggets | 36c | 29.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Nuggets | 36c | 29.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 28.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…f42bbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked Nuggets | 46c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…cb64backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…1759backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…cfe8backed Trail Blazers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…8c66backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Trail Blazers | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Trail Blazers | 80c | 14.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)this page
- Aaron Gordon: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jrue Holiday: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.