Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdf741ba9e4c81f57f6a096901f4a750183341e5bbaaa01f50e63cdbd01bec09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad3a…80e8backed Yes | 4c | 3,175$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 6c | 995.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 617.86$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.55 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…bdfdbacked Yes | 4c | 400.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 69c | 377.2$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 348.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 276.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 268.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 256.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 243.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 41c | 227.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 226.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 19c | 217.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 171.73$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 125.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 124.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 121.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 117.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed No | 74c | 104.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed No | 76c | 103.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 100.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0400…2dfabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 16c | 94.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 87.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 23c | 84.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 84.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 25c | 81.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 80.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 66.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 61.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 31c | 54.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 34c | 53.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 28c | 49.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 23c | 46.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 40.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…ab66backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 38.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 59c | 36.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed Yes | 30c | 35.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 29c | 35.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 69c | 32.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 79c | 31.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 34c | 30.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 26.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 72c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 26.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 76c | 23.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…5abdbacked No | 80c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed No | 77c | 21.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 76c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 72c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 73c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.