TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$468,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,046 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 264 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c215,089$106,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,081.382,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over51c53,134$27,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,098.321,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c51,250$25,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,6251,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over51c45,000$22,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,95057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c43,690$21,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,081.994,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Over51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,4001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over49c38,417$18,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,733.1543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…da92backed Over52c15,398$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0002646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Under53c15,095$7,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,113.185945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c14,227$7,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,062.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over51c12,628$6,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,438.064,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Over50c12,170$6,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0854438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over50c11,656$5,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,82824053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Over50c10,404$5,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20226949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Under51c8,089$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,963.4917554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Over52c7,845$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,079.155350.9%27 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under49c6,276$3,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,183.842,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Over51c6,131$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.8122648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Under49c5,383$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,745.49343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x175e…49b4backed Over47c5,319$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Under49c5,173$2,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.471,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Under51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45017348.6%84 W · 89 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Under49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.9877348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5714…f2a3backed Over49c4,984$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under51c2,538$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.671,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c2,403$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.933,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Over51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Over50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.18751.7%45 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c1,659$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.928,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad04…3c3cbacked Under50c1,428$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e64…1bb3backed Over50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae6…3055backed Under50c1,388$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6942100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Over51c1,347$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.9718651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb3…3bc5backed Under50c1,338$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6692100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef33…b3debacked Under50c1,300$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6502100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x114d…d8e3backed Over50c1,288$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6b2…cbe8backed Over50c1,288$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c1,287$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.194,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x247e…2830backed Under50c1,278$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a56…6c35backed Over50c1,270$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d6c…8e1cbacked Over50c1,256$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35bf…cd05backed Under50c1,248$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0617…d6e3backed Over50c1,246$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6895…9366backed Over50c1,240$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3343…75eebacked Under50c1,240$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6202100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c3e…c9bcbacked Under50c1,216$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6082100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…d90bbacked Over50c1,214$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7655…53b9backed Under50c1,206$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6032100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b6…00ebbacked Over50c1,204$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d4…572abacked Under50c1,196$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x483c…c4cebacked Over50c1,192$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d8…0c1fbacked Over50c1,192$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f47…210fbacked Under50c1,180$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5902100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab9…c0d6backed Over50c1,172$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea3…d936backed Over50c1,168$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e5…be92backed Under50c1,162$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5812100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f28…6ec8backed Under50c1,156$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5782100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9be5…5e55backed Over50c1,146$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb2…1f1bbacked Under50c1,144$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1add…7ff3backed Over50c1,120$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x685f…7f5fbacked Over50c1,112$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over43c1,108$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.772,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2f1…8516backed Under50c1,104$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2276…f9a5backed Under50c1,080$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5402100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29d1…dbadbacked Under50c1,080$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5402100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2280…99d9backed Over50c1,080$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab31…a9aabacked Over50c1,068$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460f…68f4backed Under50c1,068$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0788…3bbfbacked Over50c1,068$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x313b…951cbacked Under50c1,060$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5302100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab37…d4e5backed Over50c1,060$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x994b…76a9backed Under50c1,056$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x583b…a12abacked Over50c1,052$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7463…64edbacked Over50c1,048$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7004…f2cfbacked Over50c1,048$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5193…985abacked Over50c1,048$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda73…e0e8backed Under50c1,045$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b07…9d4cbacked Under50c1,042$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cd8…0d53backed Over50c1,040$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f27…cd9ebacked Under50c1,038$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5192100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc932…1a2ebacked Under50c1,028$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5142100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa52d…ada2backed Over50c1,026$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f0…a51ebacked Under50c1,020$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5102100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034855.2%192 W · 156 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…fecebacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5002100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Over49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Over49c999.94$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9729149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…2336backed Over50c988$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ad…d29cbacked Under50c942$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4712100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed Over51c930.51$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.564742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Over45c929.98$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.4927747.7%132 W · 145 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00f4…4065backed Over50c896$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7c…b33dbacked Under50c886$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4432100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f8f…1ce7backed Under50c838$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4192100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38484342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac0b…9afcbacked Over50c786$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fd…c088backed Over50c781$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.