Tennis · resolved market
Roehampton: Mark Ceban vs Iliyan Radulov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe883376749c19189958e41c21f4daefebcdccdfb1d2514b536421525af94b7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mark Cebanof Mark Ceban, Iliyan Radulov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Iliyan Radulov | 8c | 5,397$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.56 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf4…d5c4backed Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 3,562$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.26 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mark Ceban | 54c | 2,385$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.08 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Iliyan Radulov | 33c | 2,341$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.97 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Iliyan Radulov | 61c | 1,148$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Mark Ceban | 69c | 1,032$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Mark Ceban | 65c | 917.54$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.9 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Mark Ceban | 43c | 864$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.38 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Iliyan Radulov | 47c | 798.62$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.61 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 794.54$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.05 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…5169backed Mark Ceban | 71c | 710.29$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.98 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Iliyan Radulov | 34c | 655.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.93 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…fb10backed Mark Ceban | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 452 | 56.2%254 W · 198 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Iliyan Radulov | 29c | 465.64$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.05 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a0…359dbacked Iliyan Radulov | 28c | 443.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Mark Ceban | 48c | 374.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.73 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…5269backed Iliyan Radulov | 40c | 364.85$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.94 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Mark Ceban | 47c | 338.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.39 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Mark Ceban | 46c | 334.97$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.88 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Mark Ceban | 59c | 313.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Iliyan Radulov | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 39.7%83 W · 126 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…b16dbacked Mark Ceban | 66c | 273.41$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 281 | 54.8%154 W · 127 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Iliyan Radulov | 12c | 271.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…7bdabacked Mark Ceban | 64c | 270.94$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Iliyan Radulov | 18c | 242.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Iliyan Radulov | 41c | 240.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Iliyan Radulov | 45c | 237.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Iliyan Radulov | 29c | 225.75$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 242 | 31%75 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Iliyan Radulov | 44c | 217.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 209.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mark Ceban | 49c | 203.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Mark Ceban | 39c | 202.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Iliyan Radulov | 27c | 196.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Iliyan Radulov | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Iliyan Radulov | 35c | 186.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Iliyan Radulov | 55c | 161.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Mark Ceban | 79c | 161.48$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Mark Ceban | 64c | 148.2$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mark Ceban | 66c | 126.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Mark Ceban | 79c | 126$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Iliyan Radulov | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 368 | 39.1%144 W · 224 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Iliyan Radulov | 27c | 122.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mark Ceban | 49c | 115.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Iliyan Radulov | 31c | 113.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 111.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Iliyan Radulov | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 398 | 44.2%176 W · 222 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…2fd1backed Iliyan Radulov | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…51edbacked Mark Ceban | 69c | 98.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 153 | 74.5%114 W · 39 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Mark Ceban | 47c | 92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Mark Ceban | 57c | 89.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed Iliyan Radulov | 13c | 87.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Mark Ceban | 51c | 75.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Iliyan Radulov | 46c | 69.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bb…e917backed Iliyan Radulov | 47c | 69.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Iliyan Radulov | 25c | 51.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mark Ceban | 61c | 50.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Mark Ceban | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Mark Ceban | 58c | 47.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mark Ceban | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Mark Ceban | 54c | 43.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Iliyan Radulov | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Mark Ceban | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…8774backed Iliyan Radulov | 36c | 39.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Mark Ceban | 56c | 37.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 468 | 51.5%241 W · 227 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Mark Ceban | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mark Ceban | 54c | 34.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Mark Ceban | 77c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dc…fc23backed Mark Ceban | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,861 | 44.4%827 W · 1,034 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Mark Ceban | 48c | 29.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Mark Ceban | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Iliyan Radulov | 52c | 27.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Iliyan Radulov | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d8…be44backed Mark Ceban | 73c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Mark Ceban | 71c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Mark Ceban | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…3f91backed Iliyan Radulov | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.