MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef3d225a78a9c4ef8cf299e462b1b73badc70f9c05317b1af13697d5af71cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 2,118$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.16 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 2,081$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 1,933$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.38 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 1,766$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed Over | 43c | 1,583$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 21c | 1,450$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Over | 50c | 1,020$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 889.41$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.34 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 41c | 523.75$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 23c | 477.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 55c | 348.42$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.79 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 9c | 267.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 55c | 246.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a6…26bbbacked Over | 72c | 242.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 8c | 223$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 45c | 222.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 215.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 174.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Under | 59c | 157.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 29c | 114$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 108.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 101.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 17c | 74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 17c | 72.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 41c | 69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 46c | 58.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 48c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 33c | 49.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 44c | 32.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.