MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169326fe33e284670da8968b67bb404cb8775b4c0e1d1ff6e15c37603cad48e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 10,200$4,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,284 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 7,357$4,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 5,538$3,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 32c | 5,461$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 4,060$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.74 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 3,208$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.17 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.99 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 1,300$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 823.77$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.98 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 735.31$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Atlanta Braves | 36c | 555$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 539.99$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.89 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…add3backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 499.32$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 491.75$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…3c41backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 485.37$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 480$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 444.5$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.31 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 428.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 295$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 244.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 214.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 24c | 175.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Atlanta Braves | 36c | 123$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 110.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 89.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 69.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 67.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 36.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Boston Red Sox | 74c | 29.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 25.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.