Movies · resolved market
Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff09c065630df078697921911677e6e7d789aecddd1b2090ad34bafe26a1c66a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 66c | 1,612$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.39 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 2c | 689.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 51c | 541.87$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.47 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 39c | 412$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 45c | 230$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 53c | 157.3$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 58c | 138.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 53c | 135.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 131.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 16c | 124.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 42c | 122$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 121.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 18c | 110.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 18c | 96.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 48c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 87.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 65c | 65.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 46c | 45.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 46c | 36.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 26.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 74c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?this page
- Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m?No won
- Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m?No won
- Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 4m?No won
- Will "Animal Farm" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.