TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Argentina Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tomas Etcheverry

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Etcheverryof Tabilo, Etcheverry
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$255,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,980 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Tabilo51c25,449$12,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,920.853834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Etcheverry54c14,202$7,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,591.132,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Etcheverry37c13,749$5,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,630.681,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Tabilo75c10,667$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00027460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Tabilo40c9,835$3,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,933.9643051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Etcheverry60c8,821$5,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,528.5478152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Etcheverry63c7,944$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,944.0848851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc44…e036backed Tabilo69c7,062$4,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.6411560%69 W · 46 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tabilo46c6,109$2,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,810.4611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7478…b748backed Tabilo74c5,288$3,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,913.41785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+47.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Etcheverry60c4,626$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.2976146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Etcheverry38c4,468$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,765.442,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Etcheverry56c4,356$2,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.328,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Etcheverry58c4,317$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.9476140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tabilo55c4,142$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.317,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Etcheverry60c4,108$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.3593055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Tabilo40c3,999$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.756350.8%32 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Etcheverry60c3,546$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.433241.6%138 W · 194 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9aa…67e1backed Etcheverry56c3,537$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.119950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Tabilo42c3,238$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3673647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Tabilo40c3,039$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.1838133.9%129 W · 252 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Etcheverry52c2,841$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.293,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Tabilo55c2,725$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9928444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Etcheverry48c2,583$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.1680938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7750…a3f3backed Etcheverry34c2,550$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.6111215.2%17 W · 95 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Etcheverry52c2,524$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.0981349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Tabilo52c2,100$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.9763247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Etcheverry52c2,021$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.2733556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Tabilo42c1,710$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.159242.4%39 W · 53 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Etcheverry41c1,703$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.1997046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Etcheverry58c1,700$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.9819241.1%79 W · 113 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8a…7659backed Etcheverry41c1,551$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.82425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Etcheverry53c1,510$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.625853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Etcheverry42c1,503$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.241,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Etcheverry60c1,481$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.398348.2%40 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Tabilo46c1,318$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Etcheverry57c1,238$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.524340.3%98 W · 145 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Tabilo69c1,229$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8461,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Etcheverry27c1,111$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.119737.9%77 W · 896 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Tabilo41c1,076$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.141,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Etcheverry49c1,022$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.8272132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3483…2c80backed Etcheverry59c1,006$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Tabilo42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Etcheverry51c1,000$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4958031.3%25 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241a…a9c8backed Etcheverry54c1,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4607248.6%35 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb86…cc67backed Tabilo41c999$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Tabilo42c976.02$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.8211353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9206…42a6backed Tabilo71c916.48$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.75858.6%34 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Etcheverry55c909.76$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.7668026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Etcheverry26c877.15$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.099135.2%32 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Tabilo52c875.44$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45714858.8%87 W · 61 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Tabilo49c854.75$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.7739431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Etcheverry59c850.52$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.5226847%126 W · 142 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Tabilo40c826$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.421338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3905…82fcbacked Etcheverry49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.335563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Etcheverry26c769.23$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.231,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Tabilo45c767.01$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.1657939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Tabilo40c756.8$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.7212147.1%57 W · 64 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aef…936dbacked Etcheverry35c750.17$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.76742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1be6…593dbacked Tabilo42c700$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b01…36e8backed Etcheverry60c699.63$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Tabilo42c698$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1648552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Etcheverry55c674.56$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.5849143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e0…7132backed Tabilo7c673.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Tabilo54c667.88$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.051,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3947…d4eebacked Etcheverry61c631.05$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0a…959bbacked Tabilo41c621.16$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Tabilo41c616.54$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25598240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Etcheverry60c616.47$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.471,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Etcheverry42c600$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.5546553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48a…c6c4backed Tabilo40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff7c…c36abacked Tabilo39c574.51$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.062250%11 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9a…8a4cbacked Etcheverry31c569.38$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.382343.5%10 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Etcheverry58c556.58$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.3847057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Etcheverry53c524.12$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.542,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd66f…a19bbacked Etcheverry32c466.92$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.451931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Etcheverry53c466.04$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0426158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f46…4f2bbacked Etcheverry55c422.51$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.041650%8 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Etcheverry47c411.11$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.152,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Tabilo40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeef4…10eabacked Etcheverry51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Etcheverry26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.6211428.9%33 W · 81 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Tabilo45c374.53$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.541,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Etcheverry56c355.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5465651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Etcheverry61c326.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9137339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Tabilo25c324.32$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.71,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Etcheverry46c316.69$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.692,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x193d…9741backed Tabilo41c302.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe940…b9a6backed Tabilo42c301.85$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.781546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Etcheverry46c301.8$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0118636%67 W · 119 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Etcheverry57c300$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13025542%107 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0694…4a4ebacked Tabilo40c300$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11926247.7%125 W · 137 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf1…29ffbacked Etcheverry59c297$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7747…8d9bbacked Etcheverry40c288.84$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8431941.4%132 W · 187 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Etcheverry62c284$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.581,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Tabilo46c262.48$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6938739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Tabilo40c262.33$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.821,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Etcheverry31c254.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.331,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Etcheverry60c250.65$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.641,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Tabilo41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.516146.6%75 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.