Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff67ae5ccc11f0691f26a66689f11d31c3762acae13461c8f59c706c31c2c287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 835.22$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 40c | 285$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa81f…e352backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 182.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 180.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 43c | 167.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 41c | 153.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 55c | 136.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 130.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 64c | 115.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 94.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 25c | 85.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 35c | 82.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 15c | 81.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 80.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 77.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 69.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 66.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 45c | 56.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 51.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 47.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 45.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 45c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 42c | 43.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 46c | 43.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 42.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 41.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 41.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 40.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 34.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 40c | 32.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 57c | 30.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 60c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.