TailMyPicks

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Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Mikrut vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Luka Mikrutof Luka Mikrut, Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,159 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb9…32f2backed Luka Mikrut62c59,687$37,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,647.852844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo37c52,401$19,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,549.588,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo42c21,015$8,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,771.8611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Luka Mikrut57c15,555$8,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,688.6576146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo37c10,358$3,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,870.863,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Luka Mikrut56c6,087$3,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,678.36,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked Luka Mikrut64c4,680$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.85950.8%30 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Luka Mikrut61c3,845$2,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,49225546.7%119 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo39c2,652$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.394,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762d…45a6backed Luka Mikrut58c2,051$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.0719041.6%79 W · 111 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo38c1,600$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6081,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf0…b554backed Luka Mikrut57c1,300$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5592245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6170…f3fdbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027762.8%174 W · 103 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c1,045$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.7482958.1%482 W · 347 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo41c1,004$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.218,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo43c922.7$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.138,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3635…053abacked Luka Mikrut62c919.35$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.351573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo21c890.29$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2529552.2%154 W · 141 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Luka Mikrut55c859.42$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.7411850%59 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo40c804.88$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.055,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo48c647.52$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.312,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Luka Mikrut62c641.03$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8642748.7%208 W · 219 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Luka Mikrut56c548.31$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.263,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo43c523.06$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.921,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo6c485.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.164,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Luka Mikrut52c480.69$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.733,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo30c432.38$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.51,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Luka Mikrut52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6218258.8%107 W · 75 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Luka Mikrut56c355.35$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3522152.9%117 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x085d…c89ebacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9455…7defbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5096049.5%475 W · 485 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcd…c00fbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo17c294.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012054.2%65 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Luka Mikrut56c293.59$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.187,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo21c279.89$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.681,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Luka Mikrut52c233.06$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8744349%217 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo38c214.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2988358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Luka Mikrut55c213.04$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Luka Mikrut62c212.33$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.064,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9012545.6%57 W · 68 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2564837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo39c199.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo13c181.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7178838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Luka Mikrut59c162.33$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4473648.1%354 W · 382 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo38c152.43$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.771,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo29c150.25$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.673,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c57…4d10backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo17c141.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eef…a2f2backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c140$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c1…221dbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c118$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c106.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.251,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c105.05$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Luka Mikrut62c104.5$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.994,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c9…f4dabacked Luka Mikrut55c103.64$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.645251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Luka Mikrut61c102.32$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.970254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo29c100.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.192,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Luka Mikrut78c94.53$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.581,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Luka Mikrut56c94$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.361,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo41c88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.326,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Luka Mikrut59c76.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.622,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa68d…eab5backed Luka Mikrut62c64.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.875453.7%29 W · 25 L+6.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Luka Mikrut56c63.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.854,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Luka Mikrut56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.424052.5%126 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b10…2920backed Luka Mikrut58c57.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea6…b795backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo37c56.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9554141.4%224 W · 317 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e0…03c7backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c53.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo42c53.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6542946.4%199 W · 230 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b6…99b4backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo43c51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9313453.7%72 W · 62 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x379f…7d70backed Luka Mikrut56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2221056.2%118 W · 92 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Luka Mikrut63c49.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6216561.2%101 W · 64 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo42c47.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c98…9da3backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Luka Mikrut64c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6126955%148 W · 121 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041440.3%167 W · 247 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo40c44.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8331443.6%137 W · 177 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Luka Mikrut56c42.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.867864.1%50 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.613557.8%78 W · 57 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Luka Mikrut63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6878847.5%374 W · 414 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1633235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c38.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1781457%464 W · 350 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Luka Mikrut57c36.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.755347.6%263 W · 290 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo44c35.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.372755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Luka Mikrut58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4838664%247 W · 139 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2b…dd4abacked Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo43c34.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.88520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo42c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.867,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo40c32.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1737547.2%177 W · 198 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8087…a213backed Luka Mikrut64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1637266.7%248 W · 124 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…016abacked Luka Mikrut59c30.73$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7337058.4%216 W · 154 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Luka Mikrut57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.922152%115 W · 106 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dc…c980backed Luka Mikrut72c27.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.677075.7%53 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc289…04f1backed Luka Mikrut60c25.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Luka Mikrut56c22.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7618666.7%124 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Luka Mikrut64c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb207…c751backed Luka Mikrut77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.710395.1%98 W · 5 L+25.4wins+0.25per pick70cpaid+32.7%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Luka Mikrut66c19.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.785348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.