TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 243.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,953
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,953 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb552…94a8backed Over50c3,930$1,965 inLost-$1,9652,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Under47c1,207$567 inWon+$639.9511243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c1,177$622 inLost-$622.469,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Over2c500$10 inLost-$10462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over57c444$255 inLost-$254.568,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c337.69$162 inWon+$175.64,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under44c97.02$43 inWon+$54.3793849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Over54c92.59$50 inLost-$5015657.7%90 W · 66 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over59c67.8$40 inLost-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b8…3c28backed Under52c65.77$34 inWon+$31.7716944.4%75 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over48c45.77$22 inLost-$21.972,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Over54c40.74$22 inLost-$2234556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over60c37$22 inLost-$22.1543052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under47c36$17 inWon+$19.083,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under46c22.11$10 inWon+$11.941,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over54c21$11 inLost-$11.341,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Over59c20$12 inLost-$11.813953.2%74 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.