NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e5a44b87cfe41949e7d38e20907540384ab567ba79d7a858cc8bc637705ef28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Warriors, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 59c | 7,158$4,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,212.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Warriors | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz | 40c | 3,215$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.8 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 52c | 2,507$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.92 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 58c | 2,311$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Warriors | 4c | 2,200$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 46c | 2,008$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.52 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Warriors | 50c | 1,995$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.2 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Warriors | 5c | 1,800$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Warriors | 33c | 1,560$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Warriors | 55c | 1,332$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed Jazz | 52c | 1,260$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.8 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Jazz | 41c | 1,124$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.4 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Warriors | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 45c | 1,078$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…a714backed Jazz | 40c | 701.25$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Warriors | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 43c | 502.05$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.17 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Warriors | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jazz | 54c | 366$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.32 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Jazz | 44c | 327.18$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.22 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jazz | 48c | 295.2$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Jazz | 58c | 249$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c8f…c146backed Warriors | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 54c | 147$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c18…3d1cbacked Jazz | 52c | 139.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 41c | 114.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Jazz | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e88ebacked Jazz | 61c | 98.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Warriors | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Jazz | 36c | 78.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Warriors | 64c | 77.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Warriors | 57c | 68.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Warriors | 28c | 65.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Jazz | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Jazz | 56c | 53.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Warriors | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Jazz | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Jazz | 44c | 40.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Warriors | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jazz | 45c | 37.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Warriors | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked Jazz | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Jazz | 60c | 33.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…398ebacked Jazz | 34c | 30.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…ee46backed Warriors | 49c | 28.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Jazz | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Warriors | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…1e68backed Jazz | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Warriors | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Jazz won
- Jazz vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 246.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.