NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 246.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee41ac90cb9d97b1790710eb2f047efd1c5c452bd3716db81f92fee49652f6d6

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	54c	8,935$4,822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,822.4	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under	46c	5,000$2,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,700	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	54c	2,909$1,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,570.18	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed Under	46c	2,174$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,173.91	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Under	46c	1,500$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$810	185	53%98 W · 87 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under	10c	1,346$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,211.5	520	52.3%272 W · 248 L	+31.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Over	6c	1,217$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.67	43	7%3 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	46c	1,206$557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$649.11	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	55c	1,153$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.99	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Under	46c	1,009$464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$544.7	321	51.7%166 W · 155 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under	46c	1,000$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over	54c	925.93$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Under	46c	800$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$432	199	58.3%116 W · 83 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Under	10c	667.8$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$601.02	136	51.5%70 W · 66 L	-15.6wins	-0.11per pick	63cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Over	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Under	60c	462.97$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.36	236	30.1%71 W · 165 L	-12.3wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Over	10c	349.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	132	28.8%38 W · 94 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under	51c	320$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.8	249	55.8%139 W · 110 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	312	49.4%154 W · 158 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	258	46.9%121 W · 137 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Under	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Under	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	111	43.2%48 W · 63 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814a…0dc5backed Under	20c	100$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	15	93.3%14 W · 1 L	+4.8wins	+0.32per pick	61cpaid	+73%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Under	65c	80$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf36f…e5b8backed Under	46c	75.07$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.54	162	61.7%100 W · 62 L	+15.6wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under	50c	53$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	690	49.4%341 W · 349 L	-30.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	46c	44.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.79	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0848…8059backed Under	47c	41.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.02	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-27%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Under	31c	40$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…6c7ebacked Under	47c	38.3$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.3	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	49c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.32	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	51c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb95…ec26backed Under	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+76.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 246.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event