NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b35de095740ff8f09f504f9e9466e00fb5abb11d080daa8c9a5495fbe79c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 45c | 3,850$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.7 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 3,531$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Over | 55c | 1,489$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.76 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 583$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 400$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Over | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Over | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Over | 61c | 165.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 129.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 40c | 125.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 39c | 90.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 48c | 79.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 43c | 72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 64c | 62.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 43c | 52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 54c | 34.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Over | 52c | 25.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 52c | 23.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 240.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Jazz won
- Jazz vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 246.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.