TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 244.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,625 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over56c5,450$3,052 inLost-$3,051.9220055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c2,736$1,212 inWon+$1,524.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over51c2,354$1,201 inLost-$1,200.542,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under51c2,120$1,072 inWon+$1,047.948448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Under44c1,530$673 inWon+$857.0511940.3%48 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Over51c1,493$761 inLost-$761.2327735%97 W · 180 L-30.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over50c1,000$500 inLost-$50018345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under52c862.86$452 inWon+$410.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over47c844.68$397 inLost-$3972,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdac9…56e7backed Over50c546$273 inLost-$2733148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Under50c542.9$271 inWon+$271.4523250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Over2c500$10 inLost-$10462.2%1 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Over51c499.98$255 inLost-$254.9959144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under44c400$176 inWon+$2241,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under44c390$173 inWon+$2178,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over49c300$147 inLost-$1472,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Over52c209.62$109 inLost-$10936450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.0836649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under44c200$88 inWon+$1121,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under49c198.1$97 inWon+$101.033,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb3…5fe5backed Under55c181.82$100 inWon+$81.821747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c21…6ce6backed Under44c100$44 inWon+$565341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Under44c100$44 inWon+$5654246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under51c98.04$50 inWon+$48.0437352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over51c90.3$46 inLost-$46.051,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Under50c90$45 inWon+$4517447.7%83 W · 91 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over57c70.18$40 inLost-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1209…fa75backed Over51c59.22$30 inLost-$30.26943.5%30 W · 39 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under51c58.82$30 inWon+$28.8214252.1%74 W · 68 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Under44c54.5$24 inWon+$30.5212727.6%35 W · 92 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c53$27 inWon+$26.54,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Under49c40.82$20 inWon+$20.8251651.2%264 W · 252 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ef…fa7bbacked Under51c29.41$15 inWon+$14.413053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over50c22$11 inLost-$1137949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over49c20.52$10 inLost-$10.1493849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over56c20$11 inLost-$11.21,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa709…8d1dbacked Under50c20$10 inWon+$108955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.