NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-11.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbdd15f32f7cbf31e43242de72d5ae303db969440e09280d973c726442d01c68

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Warriors, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $31,537
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,537 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Warriors	54c	5,867$3,158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,158.33	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	47c	4,579$2,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,438.03	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz	55c	3,823$2,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,720.94	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors	53c	3,386$1,791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,790.92	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Jazz	46c	3,000$1,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,620	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	47c	2,194$1,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,161.37	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors	44c	2,156$939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.21	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors	50c	1,795$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.5	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	47c	1,021$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.24	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Warriors	48c	1,015$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.2	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Jazz	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz	46c	491.44$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.38	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Warriors	50c	380$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Warriors	57c	349.81$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Jazz	42c	247.11$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.33	179	41.9%75 W · 104 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Warriors	54c	189$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.06	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c11…02c8backed Warriors	57c	187.31$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.26	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jazz	46c	133.02$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.71	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Jazz	49c	120$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.65	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Jazz	55c	91.56$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.2	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Jazz	54c	91$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Jazz	46c	59.18$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.76	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Jazz	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.1	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors	49c	39.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Warriors	50c	26.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Warriors	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Warriors (-11.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event