NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0031e438fee06002e99ad7d42c78f3212c6a84f12a913150a2db56429b6c6bd

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,353 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	55c	4,642$2,571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,570.61	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	44c	3,967$1,759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,207.55	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over	52c	3,865$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	128	55.5%71 W · 57 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Over	4c	2,000$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	158	7%11 W · 147 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Over	51c	1,245$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.1	277	35%97 W · 180 L	-30.7wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	78c	805.08$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.42	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Over	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	24c	478.35$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$363.54	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Under	45c	475$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.25	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-20.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	45c	444.44$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.44	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Over	11c	400$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	95	15.8%15 W · 80 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	66c	297.86$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.55	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	41c	294.02$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.84	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under	24c	208.33$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.33	337	30.3%102 W · 235 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	33c	200.06$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.94	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Under	46c	183.64$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.17	218	58.7%128 W · 90 L	+17.1wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x130c…782cbacked Under	27c	148$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.52	144	20.1%29 W · 115 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Under	47c	113.38$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.09	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	542	46.7%253 W · 289 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under	10c	100$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over	76c	90.04$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.43	111	58.6%65 W · 46 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under	47c	81$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.93	231	53.2%123 W · 108 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Under	44c	76.57$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.88	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	31c	67.81$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.65	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Over	57c	61.02$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.78	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	43c	60.01$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.96	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under	46c	60$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.4	734	45.5%334 W · 400 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	67c	59.7$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	79c	52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.08	1,226	37.4%458 W · 768 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Under	42c	49$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.38	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	29c	44.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.79	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	36c	42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.94	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	34c	40$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.53	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Under	49c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.6	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	46c	33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.82	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	34c	30$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under	71c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Over	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc02…f89cbacked Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	47.5%66 W · 73 L	-11.2wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	68c	24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	46c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	273	53.8%147 W · 126 L	+11.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event