NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8f0c13191bff5bb22007f2e3ccff79d220535648e072d749abe64c90839014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Jazz, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 61c | 1,861$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.65 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Warriors | 65c | 1,115$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.18 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…1905backed Jazz | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Jazz | 28c | 778.71$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.79 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Jazz | 51c | 750.98$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.98 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…7807backed Jazz | 51c | 590.2$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Warriors | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Jazz | 48c | 420.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 41c | 391.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Warriors | 47c | 351.36$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Warriors | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Jazz | 27c | 190$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…4720backed Warriors | 59c | 180.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31c…642bbacked Warriors | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f4…83a0backed Warriors | 63c | 130.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Warriors | 54c | 111.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 64.7%121 W · 66 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Jazz | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Jazz | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Jazz | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…595cbacked Warriors | 60c | 42.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Warriors | 72c | 41.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…e68cbacked Warriors | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 350 | 50.6%177 W · 173 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Jazz | 46c | 30.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…d1d6backed Warriors | 71c | 22.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Warriors | 74c | 18.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Warriors | 73c | 18.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Jazz won
- Jazz vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 244.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 245.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 246.5Under won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.