NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b15cafab90036abebd49b303c2797dd44b513620e600fa4128ce803c1f56d9b

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Warriors, Jazz
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $37,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,802 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Warriors	52c	8,000$4,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,159.76	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	49c	6,206$3,017 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,188.86	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Jazz	43c	4,000$1,720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,280	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors	51c	3,513$1,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,795.11	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz	43c	3,185$1,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,815.47	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors	56c	2,052$1,156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,155.59	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Warriors	52c	1,954$1,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,016.16	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors	55c	1,856$1,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,025.94	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Jazz	50c	1,154$577 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$577	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz	46c	1,100$506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Warriors	52c	774$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.6	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Jazz	48c	700$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$367	528	44.7%236 W · 292 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz	46c	589$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.06	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Jazz	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Warriors	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Warriors	51c	493.64$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Jazz	51c	456.93$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.9	232	50.4%117 W · 115 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jazz	46c	400$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Warriors	46c	400$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	591	44.5%263 W · 328 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	43c	300$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Jazz	51c	203.92$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.92	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Jazz	46c	150$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors	52c	131.25$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.25	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Jazz	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	304	54.9%167 W · 137 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Jazz	48c	93.69$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.77	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Jazz	48c	76.9$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.99	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors	54c	73.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85c…3f74backed Warriors	57c	61.12$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.84	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Jazz	48c	54.35$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.26	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors	53c	54.21$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.73	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c21…6ce6backed Jazz	47c	52.08$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jazz	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…74cfbacked Warriors	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Warriors	47c	38.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Warriors	56c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Warriors (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event