NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 245.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06f14719e8a5d89f0f575c5065102a3e4c8d6a3bbb61b6d66cf3a538856eb22f

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $137,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $139,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,503 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Under	45c	90,427$40,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49,923.45	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over	55c	84,820$46,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46,650.93	200	55%110 W · 90 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	56c	15,789$8,775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,775.08	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under	44c	7,000$3,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,890	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Under	45c	6,419$2,889 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,530.69	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07fc…7ac6backed Over	55c	5,000$2,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,750	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-35%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Over	54c	3,413$1,843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,843.17	237	47.7%113 W · 124 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Under	50c	2,576$1,288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,288	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Over	53c	2,462$1,305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,304.9	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	32c	2,299$728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,570.76	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under	45c	2,000$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,100	339	45.1%153 W · 186 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	54c	1,144$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.2	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Over	54c	1,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	55c	999.97$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.08	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Under	46c	947.22$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.5	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under	45c	886.96$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$486.96	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	54c	855.21$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.81	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…aa68backed Under	45c	810.32$363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$447.12	110	60%66 W · 44 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	51c	588$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.88	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	45c	400$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	44c	400$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53b0…4daabacked Over	54c	370.41$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.02	84	48.8%41 W · 43 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9827…6c61backed Under	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+4.6wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	45c	214$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.7	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	34c	213.24$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.15	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	45c	208.33$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.58	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Under	66c	168.18$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.18	136	51.5%70 W · 66 L	-15.6wins	-0.11per pick	63cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7f89…f3eabacked Under	46c	107.59$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.1	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	50c	105.57$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.79	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	48.4%61 W · 65 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22f6…6a9bbacked Over	60c	66.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	80	55%44 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a8b…b116backed Under	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fdd…23d8backed Over	54c	49.41$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1725…7405backed Under	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under	47c	33$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.49	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	47c	31.76$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.83	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00c5…0622backed Under	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.26per pick	58cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	56c	29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…4085backed Over	54c	22.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd925…3ab5backed Under	46c	21.78$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.76	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed Over	56c	20.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	115	46.1%53 W · 62 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 245.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event