Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c7e209b530022b6e5f1445e71d800f4c438008196fbe45e56894d5f9f7e19d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd18…c3fcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,487$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 20c | 1,795$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,620$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.31 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 14c | 1,501$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.16 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 74c | 972.59$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.58 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 24c | 886.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.45 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 29c | 862.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 45c | 827.56$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.59 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 21c | 759.53$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.26 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 26c | 703.77$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 14c | 648.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 643.99$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 594.15$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 60c | 583.95$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.58 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 553.41$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 36c | 549.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 480.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 22c | 447.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 20c | 417.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 78c | 382.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 11c | 350.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 287.19$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…fda2backed Yes | 6c | 286.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 273.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 263.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 260$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 242.2$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 21c | 238.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 225$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 206.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 20c | 204.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 20c | 195.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x627b…285bbacked No | 78c | 192.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 27c | 175.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 170.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 59c | 168.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 165.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 165$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 165$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 37c | 160$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 9c | 155.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 22c | 140.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 139.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 30c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 129.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 15c | 127.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 32c | 123.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 65c | 120.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 119.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 116$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 22c | 115.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 111.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 18c | 107.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…0710backed Yes | 24c | 107.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 76c | 104.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 101.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 98.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 21c | 96.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…89d6backed Yes | 28c | 92.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 76c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 35c | 80.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 18c | 80.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 20c | 79.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 17c | 75.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 73.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 72.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 66.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 17c | 65.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…04fbbacked Yes | 48c | 65.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 26c | 62.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 60.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 38c | 56.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 52.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed Yes | 27c | 52.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 51.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 30c | 51.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe38…6f8ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 28c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…9847backed Yes | 27c | 44.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed No | 63c | 37.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 28.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed No | 70c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a9…25b5backed No | 65c | 22.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…f3efbacked No | 67c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.