Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd08107a0d64b6ee63df82f9051ff7b03a9599e756baa29074b1e2a9d7c442a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 63c | 1,028$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.13 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 923.95$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 39c | 903.27$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.05 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 42c | 874.82$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 44c | 802.77$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.16 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 669.22$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked No | 55c | 648.15$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.48 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 72c | 617.76$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.07 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 21c | 603.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 59c | 550.65$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.98 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 548.29$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 535.91$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 44c | 517.32$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.97 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 51c | 504.55$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 41c | 484.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.44 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 439.16$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 423.06$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 78c | 385.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 45c | 361.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 340.73$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 339.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 38c | 328.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.51 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 40c | 283.54$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 71c | 279.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 20c | 255.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 251.74$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 249$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 242.2$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…a731backed Yes | 43c | 231.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 45c | 222.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 61c | 213$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 43c | 207.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 202.38$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 60c | 200$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 186.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 185.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 181$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 62c | 179.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 172.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 171.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 58c | 171.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 158.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 154.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 151$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked No | 54c | 150.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 147$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 145.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 143$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 32c | 142.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 137$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 45c | 132.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 130.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 119.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 119.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 118.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 45c | 117.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 114.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 59c | 113.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 51c | 104.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 101.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 30c | 98.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 80.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 60c | 79.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 77.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 75.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 20c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 43c | 70.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…cb52backed Yes | 44c | 70.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 39c | 70.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 58c | 69.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 46c | 69.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 36c | 64.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 41c | 63.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 36c | 60.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 22c | 60.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 77c | 57.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 32c | 57.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…04fbbacked Yes | 76c | 56.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 72c | 54.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…53f3backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 53c | 53.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…0f48backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.